Rent or buy, at today's rates
Where you'd financially stand at the end of the period under each choice — with the Proposition 13 assessment cap modelled properly, which most national calculators get wrong. It is entirely willing to conclude that you should keep renting, and it says so when the numbers say so.
This calculator runs entirely in your browser. There is no server, no account, no tracking of what you enter, and nothing is sent to me. Close the tab and it's gone. If you want me to look at your actual numbers, that's a phone call — not a form.
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| If you buy | If you rent | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash in at the start | — | — |
| Total paid out over the period | — | — |
| Home equity after selling costs | — | — |
| Investments | — | — |
| Net position | — | — |
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Assumptions
- Whoever pays less month to month invests the difference at the return rate. That's what makes this a fair comparison rather than a sales pitch.
- Property tax grows at 2% a year — the Proposition 13 ceiling on assessed value increases, not the market rate. This is a real and underrated advantage of owning in California, and most national calculators get it wrong.
- Insurance and HOA grow at 3% a year; maintenance tracks home value.
- Buyer's closing costs taken as 2% of price at purchase.
- No tax deductions modelled. Mortgage interest and property tax may be deductible if you itemise, but the standard deduction and the SALT cap mean many households get little or no benefit. Excluding it is the conservative choice and it works against buying — ask a CPA about your situation.
- No rent deposit, no moving costs, no assumption that either home is nicer.
- The rent-to-price ratio drives this more than any other input. The defaults compare a $1.1m home against $4,800 rent. If you'd genuinely rent something cheaper or smaller than the house you'd buy, say so — comparing a rented flat against a bought house isn't a like-for-like answer, it's a lifestyle change with a number attached.
It is built for planning and comparison, not for closing. Real figures depend on your lender, your parcel, your insurer and your escrow. Every figure past today is a guess about the future, including mine. Verify against your actual tax bill, your lender's Loan Estimate, and your escrow's settlement statement before you rely on any of it.
Why a broker built a tool that says "keep renting"
Because sometimes that's the answer, and you'll find out either way — the only question is whether you find out before or after you buy.
The honest position is this: buying wins over long holds and loses over short ones, because the costs of getting in and out are front-loaded and large. Somewhere between year three and year eight, depending on your numbers, the lines cross. If you might move for work in two years, the arithmetic is not close and no amount of "but you're throwing money away on rent" changes it.
Set appreciation to 0% and see what the tool says. Then set it to 5% and see. The gap between those two answers is the size of the bet you'd be making, and you should know how big it is before you make it.
If it says rent and you were hoping it wouldn't, call me anyway. Sometimes there are reasons to buy that aren't on a spreadsheet, and I'd rather help you think about those honestly than talk you into a transaction.